6 Moves Institutions Make Before the Money Breaks — While You Wait for a Warning

Dalio Framework
リアクション
2026年06月15日
The institutions you trust to warn you before a monetary shift have already moved — quietly, years early. In this episode I walk through the six-move institutional playbook that repeats across five centuries of monetary turning points, and why the public announcement almost always arrives too late to help the people waiting for it.

Inside this episode:
- Why central banks bought more than 3,000 tonnes of gold between 2022 and 2024 — the heaviest official buying since at least 1950 (World Gold Council)
- The two-decade drift in the U.S. dollar's share of global reserves, from roughly 72% in 2001 to around 58% in 2024 — and the honest debate over how much is real diversification versus exchange-rate math (Federal Reserve / IMF COFER)
- Germany's Bundesbank bringing 674 tonnes of gold home from New York and Paris, finishing three years ahead of schedule (Bundesbank)
- What the U.S. Treasury's own capital data shows about the largest official lenders shortening the leash (U.S. Treasury TIC)
- Why the comforting announcement is the last signal, not the first
- The replacement rails being built in plain sight right now (IMF)

Sources referenced: World Gold Council, U.S. Federal Reserve, IMF COFER, Deutsche Bundesbank, U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) System.

This is an educational breakdown of macroeconomic history and publicly available institutional data. It is not financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

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