Go beyond the headlines with Shawn Snyder, Economic Strategist at Potomac, as he analyzes key market trends from the third week of September 2026.

In this episode, Shawn covers:

• Inflation-Adjusted West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price ($/BBL.) vs. U.S. Recessions
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis – FRED, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg L.P., and Potomac. Data as of September 14, 2026. Note: Shaded regions denote periods of U.S. recession.

• Futures-Implied Number of Fed Rate Cuts or Hikes by 6/09/2027 FOMC Meeting
Sources: CME Group, Bloomberg L.P., and Potomac. Data as of September 16, 2026. All forecasts are expressions of opinions and are subject to change without notice and are not intended to be a guarantee.

• Monthly Correlation Between Daily Changes in Brent Crude Oil and U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield
Sources: ICE, U.S. Department of Treasury, Bloomberg L.P., and Potomac. Data as of September 14, 2026. Note: The daily changes for Brent crude is % change and the daily change in yields is basis points.

• Implied 10-Year Treasury Yield Move From a 10% Move in Brent Crude Oil
Sources: ICE, U.S. Department of Treasury, Bloomberg L.P., and Potomac. Data as of September 14, 2026. Note: Monthly regression beta of daily changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, in basis points, on daily percentage changes in Brent crude oil. Chart values multiply the estimated monthly beta by 10 to show the implied basis-point change in the 10-year yield associated with a 10% move in Brent.

Implied 10-Year Treasury Yield Move From a 10% Move in Brent Crude Oil
• Sources: ICE, U.S. Department of Treasury, Bloomberg L.P., and Potomac. Data as of September 14, 2026. Note: Monthly regression beta of daily changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, in basis points, on daily percentage changes in Brent crude oil. Chart values multiply the estimated monthly beta by 10 to show the implied basis-point change in the 10-year yield associated with a 10% move in Brent.

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Timestamps:
00:00 – Welcome to the Beltway Brief | Third week of September2026
00:15 – Intro
00:33 – Shawn’s Opening Remarks
00:38 – Inflation-Adjusted West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price
01:22 – Futures-Implied Number of Fed Rate Cuts or Hikes by 6/09/2027 FOMC Meeting
02:34 – Monthly Correlation Between Daily Changes in Brent Crude Oil and U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield
03:37 – Implied 10-Year Treasury Yield Move From a 10% Move in Brent Crude Oil
06:26 – Shawn’s Closing remarks
07:45 – Credits
07:054 – Disclosure

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🔗 Learn more about Potomac: https://potomac.com/

💼 Disclosure: https://potomac.com/disclosures

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