India: Monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 4, bringing long-awaited relief after weeks of extreme heat. But even as the first showers sweep across the country's southern coast, meteorologists are warning that the 2026 monsoon season could be India's weakest in more than a decade. At the centre of these concerns is El Nino, a climate phenomenon that can disrupt rainfall patterns and weaken the moisture-bearing winds that drive the monsoon. In this report, Gursshheen Gahllen brings you details on why forecasters are worried, what history tells us about El Nino years, and what a weaker monsoon could mean for farmers, food prices, and India's economy.

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